July 31, 2024

Venezuela

Protesters took to the streets across Venezuela on Tuesday, demanding that President Nicolas Maduro acknowledge he lost Sunday's election to the opposition, as a major international observer concluded the vote was undemocratic. The protests, which the government denounced as an attempted ‘coup,’ began on Monday after the South American country's electoral authority declared that Maduro had won a third term with 51% of votes to extend a quarter-century of socialist rule…

“The opposition, which considers the election body to be in the pocket of a dictatorial government, says its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez had more than twice as many votes as Maduro based on the 90% of vote tallies it has been able to access… Many countries have called on Venezuela to make the vote tally public and U.S. sources said Washington was considering fresh sanctions on individuals linked to the election unless there was greater transparency.” Reuters

Both sides condemn Maduro and urge the US to support the opposition:

This is not a foregone conclusion. Venezuela’s opposition is united in ways that it hasn’t been for years. Pre-election polls put Mr. Maduro at a steep disadvantage had the election been free and fair, and millions of Venezuelans are well aware that it was not. They could turn to the streets, now that the ballot box option has been foreclosed. That could open an uncertain process of backdoor negotiations in which the regime sought an offramp — but only if it could win guarantees against international prosecution for its misdeeds…

“History shows that democratic change often happens in waves… If Mr. Maduro steps down, authoritarian regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua may soon come under more pressure from their populations. The window of opportunity is slim, but if the opposition can capitalize on the moment and get Mr. Maduro out, it will set an example for other countries to do the same and give a lift to democratic governance across the region and beyond.”

Michael Albertus, New York Times

“The Biden administration and the State Department must work quickly to support Venezuela’s democratically elected opposition and negotiate Maduro’s exit… The stakes are high not just for Venezuela: A significant contributor to the ongoing migration crisis facing the United States are the Venezuelan refugees fleeing the Maduro regime, who show up at the southern border in the hundreds of thousands every year…

“If the fraudulent election results are allowed to stand, and Maduro’s democratically illegitimate regime is handed six more years of power without much international resistance, the migration crisis emanating from Venezuela will likely only worsen.”

Matthew X. Wilson, National Review

Other opinions below.

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From the Left

“The Trump administration imposed some of the most draconian sanctions in history against Venezuela. Those sanctions, combined with Maduro’s egregious corruption and mismanagement of the economy, have contributed to an economic free fall twice as precipitous as the one the United States experienced during the Great Depression… But no amount of economic immiseration has dislodged Maduro

“The Trump administration continued to ratchet up the pressure, issuing more sanctions until Trump’s very last day in office. In 2020, the U.S. Justice Department also indicted Maduro, along with other senior Venezuelan leaders, on charges of narcoterrorism, and the State Department offered a $15 million bounty for information leading to his arrest. Yet, unlike former Panamanian president Manuel Noriega, Maduro has so far escaped a U.S. courtroom — and a prison cell.”

Max Boot, Washington Post

Some argue, “Maintaining the economic blockade will continue to force millions of desperate Venezuelans into exile. So far, the exodus amounts to nearly 8 million people—of whom several hundred thousand have already showed up at our southern border… What’s more, the sanctions did not promote democracy

“Besides ending the economic sanctions, the United States should just sit back, and say little or nothing. Decades of brutal US interventions in Latin America have destroyed our government’s credibility. Instead, America should concentrate on humanely treating the Venezuelan migrants whom our harsh policy helped create when they reach our southern border. Let Latin Americans, both leaders and ordinary people, continue responding to the crisis. And, for once, let Venezuelans themselves make their own history.”

James North, The Nation

From the Right

“Were the Administration serious about holding Maduro to account, it would rally the Organization of American States for wide-ranging sanctions, call a U.N. Security Council meeting that forced China and Russia to explain why they back the dictator, and recognize Gonzalez as Venezuela’s legitimate president. President Joe Biden’s weak response is characteristic. Since entering office, he has incentivized Maduro’s double-dealing

“He foolishly waived sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and mineral export industries in 2023. This was part of an agreement designed to ensure fair elections — in other words, to ensure that what happened on Sunday would never happen…

“After months of blatant Maduro breaches of his obligations, the administration finally reintroduced sanctions in April, but the damage was already done. Maduro played Biden for a fool — who wouldn’t? — and learned that the United States would not confront him.”

Editorial Board, Washington Examiner

“When it agreed to waive the sanctions, and to release certain Maduro allies as part of a prisoner swap last year, the U.S. signaled that it could find a way to work with the strongman and even that it assesses that he may possibly be a good-faith interlocutor. Former climate envoy John Kerry personified this approach when he shook Maduro’s hand, laughing with him, on the sidelines of a climate conference in 2022…

“But Maduro was never the partner that Biden officials deluded themselves into believing he could be… It’s time for a course correction. In addition to reversing its appeasement of Maduro, the administration can do the right thing by throwing America’s full support behind the Venezuelan people as they embark in the coming days on what will hopefully become an existential challenge to the regime.”

The Editors, National Review