June 3, 2024

Ukraine

President Joe Biden has quietly authorized Kyiv to launch U.S.-supplied weapons at military targets inside Russia that are supporting an offensive against the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, four U.S. officials said [last] Thursday. The decision marks a policy shift by Biden, who had steadfastly refused to allow Ukraine to use American weaponry for strikes inside Russia.” Reuters

Many on both sides are critical of the Biden administration’s approach to Ukraine:

“Ukraine will only be permitted to conduct some strikes with some types of weapons. Not allowed: Deep precision strikes with America’s long-range missiles known as ATACMS. In other words, memo to Mr. Putin: Move your forces a little further back and you’re good. This timidity and micromanagement from the Biden Administration is the core reason the fight has devolved into a muddle…

“None of Mr. Biden’s self-imposed restraint has persuaded Mr. Putin to back off his aim to annex Ukraine. The Russian is mobilizing his society for a long war and turning to North Korea and Iran for ammunition. Even after enormous losses, Mr. Putin could still emerge from the war with a hardened military, fresh battlefield experience—and more territory closer to more of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization border.”

Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal

“Joe Biden has done it again, in Ukraine as in the Gaza Strip. By finally allowing the Ukrainians to use American ordnance to shoot back at nearby enemy targets just inside Russia, the US president has made a sensible foreign policy change, but haltingly and on the down low, after prolonged pleading and urging by American allies, and after dithering and delay that have cost many lives…

“And he’s still adding enough fine print to drive Kyiv to distraction. The Ukrainians may only aim US ordnance at the Russian border region near Kharkiv, and only against weapons systems the Russians are already using to attack Ukraine. This is not how a hot war of national self-defense is waged… Biden does increasingly give the appearance of being driven by events rather than driving them.”

Andreas Kluth, Bloomberg

“Ukraine has frequently targeted occupied Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, using ‘Storm Shadow’ missiles provided by the UK. Ukraine also launched strikes on Kharkiv and Kherson in late 2022, as it sought to liberate the regions occupied by Russia in the early weeks of the full-scale invasion. In both cases, Russia had warned Ukraine and its Western allies not to cross its red line. In both cases, Ukraine and its Western allies ignored the warning…

“The story of the past 27 months since Russia invaded Ukraine has been one of crumbling taboos… Each time, the West has agonized over whether to grant Kyiv’s latest request, fearing escalation and a potential Russian response. Each time, the taboo was broken – and nothing happened. What seemed beyond the pale one week had become banal the next. But the rhythm of deliberation and delay has been hard to shake.”

Christian Edwards, CNN

“The international community must uphold the principle that none of Russia’s territorial conquests in Ukraine are legitimate. The Russians continue to pursue their original war aims of destroying Ukraine as an independent state and absorbing it into a renewed Russian empire, as well as completely wiping out Ukrainian identity and language. That undertaking is Putin’s constantly repeated aim…

“The total G.D.P.s of the states supporting Ukraine surpass $60 trillion. Adding up the G.D.P.s of Russia, Iran and North Korea gets about $2.5 trillion. Even adding in China’s G.D.P. — and I’m very skeptical that we’ll see Xi Jinping really commit fully to helping Putin — the coalition supporting Ukraine has about a three-to-one advantage in G.D.P. That should be a sobering thought for Putin and a heartening one for us. As long as we stand together and stand with Ukraine… there is every reason to be confident that we can succeed.”

Frederick Kagan, New York Times

Other opinions below.

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From the Left

“Mr. Biden’s posture has prompted criticism that he is micromanaging, and hence weakening, Ukraine’s war effort. The criticism is most justified in the case of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s oil industry, deep within Russian territory. These help deprive Moscow of a key revenue source, but the Biden administration has discouraged them out of concern over rising oil prices…

“Still, the president’s fears are not unfounded and his caution broadly defensible, in light of Mr. Putin’s unpredictability, the ever-present chance of miscalculations — and Russia’s arsenal of battlefield and strategic nuclear weapons…

“Ukraine should be able to use U.S. weapons to suppress devastating standoff attacks on its territory. But Mr. Biden’s assent was also limited, in both how and when American weapons can be used. From here, the president must walk a narrow path. He should be willing to expand Ukraine’s options if the country asks for more leeway, for example on where Ukraine can strike. Yet, he should not fully discard his caution, lifting all conditions on U.S. military aid, lest he risk sparking a wider war.”

Editorial Board, Washington Post

From the Right

“While the permission given by the Biden administration is on paper ‘limited’ to strikes on military targets in the parts of Russia near Ukraine’s Kharkov Oblast—presumably Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts—it is unclear how these limits will be enforced. Last year, pro-Ukrainian militants launched raids into the Belgorod Oblast using American-provided Humvees…

“Indeed, the recent Russian operations near Kharkov, which the Biden administration [is] using as an excuse for allowing strikes, have been explained by the Russians as a response to Ukrainian strikes on residential neighborhoods in Belgorod…

“[Quincy Institute advisor Kelley] Vlahos singled out how it is entirely possible that the Biden administration—and the Washington establishment more broadly—has grown complacent in its views towards Russia, a situation that risks even further escalation… By ‘crossing a red line that it laid down years ago,’ the Biden administration ‘risks Russia having to put its foot down. There will come a time when Russia responds and Washington will be surprised.’”

Mason Letteau Stallings, American Conservative