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“President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election… The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of four to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.” New York Times
The right argues the Democratic party’s policy priorities are to blame and Biden should be worried.
“Elections are won on margins, not the absolute number of votes. And presidential elections are won in swing states, not by counting all the votes everywhere and adding them up. So Joe Biden may get nearly as many votes next year as last, with Democrats holding their nose. But will that be enough, or will a significant enough number of Biden voters stay home or vote for somebody else?…
“I think the answer is no, and so do an awful lot of Democrat establishment types, who are quietly and not-so-quietly panicking right now… Of the battleground states, Biden only leads in one–and he does so there because his support with white voters (mainly AWFLs, or Affluent White Female Liberals) hasn’t collapsed as far as it has with other demographics. Biden is losing because minorities are fleeing from his coalition, and even young folks are displeased.”
David Strom, Hot Air
“Dems have put woke issues like climate change and special-interest handouts (like having the taxpayers pay off student loans) over fighting inflation and making life affordable for average folks…
“Three times as many voters in [these] states (67% vs. 22%) think the nation is headed in the ‘wrong direction,’ including heavy majorities of non-whites. Far more say policies pushed by Biden (and fellow Democrats) have hurt them ‘personally’ (53%) than those who say they’ve helped them (35%)… On the economy, a top issue for voters, Trump leads with a whopping 22-point edge: 59%-37%…
“They feel the pain: Inflation has made everyday goods unaffordable for all but the well-to-do, and forced the Federal Reserve to goose interest rates, making financing — home mortages, in particular — difficult. These aren’t just Biden’s policies; they’re backed by the entire Democratic Party… On other issues, too, Dems are at odds with Americans: The party refuses to force Biden, for example, to secure the border and enforce US immigration law, though voters are desperate for that.”
Editorial Board, New York Post
“The results in survey after survey show that Mr. Biden is in perilous re-election shape. His Bidenomics pitch hasn’t worked as voters remain sore about rising prices and a fall in real wages during his Presidency. His age and carriage are huge weaknesses even against the 77-year-old Mr. Trump…
“Especially striking is that Mr. Biden does worse than even Vice President Kamala Harris against Mr. Trump. A generic, unnamed Democrat leads Mr. Trump by eight points. This suggests voters have soured on Mr. Biden in particular, and the survey shows 71% of voters think he is too old to run again, including 51% of Democrats…
“The war in the Middle East is now dividing Mr. Biden’s coalition, as anti-Israel progressives turn on the President. We think Mr. Biden deserves credit for supporting Israel, and so do most Democrats. But in a closely divided country, even a small defection by a core group of voters can turn a swing state… In 2020 Mr. Biden won as the Democrat most likely to beat Mr. Trump, and he did. But he now risks squandering that legacy by losing to Mr. Trump in a rematch.”
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
Some note, “[Trump’s] unfavorability rating (56%) is nearly identical to Biden’s… Just as Biden is polling below a ‘generic Republican,’ Trump is polling below a ‘generic Democrat.’ In other words, voters hate both candidates…
“Biden is the focus now, but if Trump were to clinch the nomination, then the entire Democratic Party, liberal media, higher education, and celebrity alliance would bear down on him again. Democrats will hide Biden in a basement, and Trump will chase the cameras and remind everyone why they cast him out in 2020. It will be, as Yogi Berra said, ‘deja vu all over again.’”
Zachary Faria, Washington Examiner
The left is alarmed and divided about how the Biden campaign should respond.
The left is alarmed and divided about how the Biden campaign should respond.
“I think Biden has been a great president… He passed bipartisan bills on which Republicans agreed to spend money on public investments. He stood with auto workers as they got their best contract in recent history. He’s been stalwart on abortion rights since Dobbs. His leadership on Ukraine has been, at times, nothing short of inspiring. My friends and I are more mixed on his handling of the current Middle East crisis, but that’s an almost impossible situation that isn’t his fault…
“This poll should cause alarm and force some tough conversations at the White House and in high-level Democratic circles. The problem in sum is this: We are staring down the business end of a massive chasm between the way high-information liberal voters and lower-information swing voters see Biden, like nothing we’ve ever seen in modern politics… [Democrats] either need to bridge that chasm—figure out ways to explain to voters that Biden has been better than they think and that he’s fit to serve another term—or they need to start thinking about whether they have to change captains before it becomes unbridgeable.”
Michael Tomasky, New Republic
“Young voters told me they are more aware of society’s chaos and conflicts than they are of what the president argues is a record of progress, millions of good jobs and a robust G.D.P. Even as he has canceled $127 billion in student debt and made headway on the economy, climate, marijuana and gun safety goals, Mr. Biden finds himself playing more defense than offense with a demographic skeptical that he is doing enough to make their lives better or make the country a more just place…
“Now is not the time for a play-it-safe Rose Garden strategy. Many young Americans seek bold leadership that prioritizes caring for the most vulnerable, including making real progress toward a state of Palestine side by side with a strong, democratic Israel. Engaged by these urgent matters more than they have been in recent years, they seek an opportunity to feel good about their president, their country and their future again.”
John Della Volpe, New York Times
Others argue, “It’s a bit too late in Biden’s career for him to reinvent himself and his party in the kind of adventurous plunge to the populist left that might dislodge negative impressions of him, particularly among voters who aren’t paying much attention to political messaging or various indices of national well being…
“What needs to happen is that the horror of left-of-center (and some right-of-center) elites toward a second Trump presidency be communicated regularly and loudly to voters who should but do not share that horror… It’s time to go very negative on the former president and paint a lurid yet entirely accurate picture of what life may be like under his renewed and (in his mind) vindicated rule.”
Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine
Still others argue, “How, for example, do voters know which candidate is ‘tougher on crime’? Probably not one American in 50 is aware that Biden’s budgets proposed funding the hiring of more local police officers, whereas Trump’s budgets proposed cutting their number. Voters know that Trump huffs and puffs about stopping crime (at least crimes committed by other people), but they do not hear Biden on the issue as much…
“[Similarly] In May, Biden allowed the expiration of a Trump-era policy that used the COVID-19 emergency as a justification for barring asylum seekers from the country. If you watch Fox News, you probably know about that. What you probably don’t know is that Biden promptly replaced Trump’s temporary restrictions with a new permanent system. Those who crossed another safe country on their way to the United States will be refused an asylum hearing here… Biden already drives in the road’s middle lane. Now he just needs to toot the horn to let the other motorists know that he owns it.”
David Frum, The Atlantic
