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Editor's Note: Many thanks to the hundreds of readers who responded to our survey with thoughtful questions! We’re delightfully overwhelmed. This week we’re answering a select few that we think represent broader themes. Our focus today is economics, immigration, and questions for The Flip Side team.
Please note that while we've put a lot of thought into these answers, we do not claim to speak for any political party / activist group / large swathe of people. When we’re answering as a 'conservative' or 'liberal,' it’s a tricky balance between trying to accurately summarize the prevailing viewpoints on our side of the political spectrum, being true to how we as individuals think and feel, and keeping our answers short enough so that readers won’t lose interest. As always, please reach out with any thoughts or feedback!
How likely is it that Trump will improve the economy in his second term with his policies? What's the long term outlook for his policies? - Steve, California
I have heard that Trump’s immigration plan will actually tank the economy, but I’ve heard a lot of people say they voted for Trump due to his stance on the economy. Similarly, the tax cuts to the rich. What do you think he is realistically going to do that will vastly improve the economy? - Kyla, Colorado
Trump will continue the successful policies from his first term, which saw a robust economy until the pandemic hit. He will push for tax cuts, which will increase growth. Reduced regulation will increase business confidence and spur greater energy production, putting downward pressure on energy prices. Mass deportations, if they occur, might increase prices but would also raise wages.
Over the long term, Trump’s plans are unlikely to reduce the deficit, but neither were Harris’s; at least his plans are better for GDP and wage growth, which will make the debt burden more manageable. The Penn-Wharton budget model estimated that GDP and wages under Trump would be higher than Harris over the long term. It also notes that “low, middle, and high-income households in 2026 and 2034 all fare better under [Trump’s] campaign proposals” relative to current policies.
Beyond GDP growth, Trump’s plans will seek to mitigate some of the harms of globalization and strengthen domestic manufacturing. “Trump’s economic agenda isn’t just about growth but also trying to restore the good jobs and healthy communities manufacturing once made possible while reducing dependence on China.”
With Trump's plans to put massive tariffs on imports, are you worried it will make the economy even worse since those extra costs will end up on the consumer? - Anonymous
That is certainly a danger. For that reason, many conservatives are skeptical of tariffs. In fact, it has traditionally been Democrats who supported tariffs in order to protect domestic manufacturing workers. While tariffs might cause higher prices, they also make local production more competitive, and thus support higher-paying jobs here in the US (at a cost, of course, to US consumers). Republicans, in their pivot to appeal to the working class, have now adopted many of those views.
That said, free trade only works when both sides play by the rules. When one side cheats, tariffs can be necessary in order to level the playing field. China is notorious for subsidizing its industries, allowing them to sell at low cost and drive foreign competitors out of business. Both the US and the European Union have imposed “anti-dumping” tariffs on Chinese goods that are artificially cheap because of state subsidies.
Why are conservatives so skeptical of Biden/Harris' economic policy when the economy is doing great, inflation is optimal, and unemployment is way down? - Anonymous
Groceries are 22 percent more expensive than they were four years ago. It’s good that inflation has been coming down in recent months, but this won’t bring prices back to where they were, or even where they would have been absent several years of high inflation. Research from MIT indicates that nearly half of this inflation was caused by excessive federal spending.
At the risk of stating the obvious, unemployment affects a comparatively small portion of the population acutely (those who are unemployed) but does not directly affect most people day to day, whereas high inflation affects the majority of voters directly and persistently.
“Per capita disposable income is historically one of the variables that most accurately predicts election outcomes. Although heavily affected by the timing of Covid stimulus payments, nothing about [the] data suggests that consumers have had a smooth economic ride under Mr. Biden. While corporate profits have soared to record levels, Americans quickly spent down the savings they built up during the pandemic.” In a recent Gallup poll, more than half of Americans reported that they are worse off than they were four years ago. It’s reasonable to hold that against the incumbent administration.
When you ask the wealthy to pay their “fair share” in taxes, what exactly does this mean in terms of percent of income, minimums-maximum amount, and similar objective metrics? - Jim
Since 1978, CEO compensation has grown by 940 percent; one analysis found that the ratio of CEO compensation to that of a typical worker has risen from 20-to-1 in 1965 to as much as 278-to-1 today. Between 2011 and 2021, “The S&P 500 went from roughly 1,300 points to over 3,800 points, almost tripling. The Nasdaq index over the same period went from 2,800 points to 13,000 points, more than quadrupling. Times were good for the 10 percent of Americans who own 80 percent of stocks and bonds. In contrast, the real median weekly wage rose barely over 10 percent.”
Taxes on the wealthy are currently low by historic terms. Following World War II, the top marginal tax rate was a whopping 91 percent. It remained at 70 percent until the 1980s, when it was lowered to 50 percent. The current rate is 37%; most Democrats want to raise it to 39.6% (the rate prior to Trump’s tax cuts). Other proposals to increase taxes on the wealthy that a plurality of Democrats support include increasing the estate tax, lifting the Social Security payroll tax cap, and imposing a wealth tax.
In addition to raising tax rates, Democrats also want to close the numerous loopholes that allow the wealthy and large corporations to evade taxes that everyone else has to pay. One example is the carried interest loophole, which allows partners in private equity funds to pay around half of the normal income tax rate. This costs the federal government over a billion dollars each year. There’s also the Medicare tax loophole, which allows some business owners to avoid paying Medicare taxes (3.8 percent for high earners). This costs the federal government $20 billion dollars each year. And also the pass-through loophole, which allows some businesses organized as partnerships to avoid corporate taxes. This costs the federal government $100 billion a year.
Do you believe in socialism? - Anonymous
While polls show that a majority of Democrats have a positive view of socialism, it’s important to note that nearly as many have a positive view of capitalism. The way that Democrats perceive socialism also differs from Republicans; Democrats overwhelmingly see socialism as “a system where the government empowers workers to have a say in the economy and provides people with health care, housing, free education, a clean environment, and assistance to those in financial need.” They do not see it as “a system where the government has total control over the economy and business.”
These views are driven in large part by increased wealth inequality and reduced economic mobility. “While median earnings for all Americans have risen modestly (after adjusting for inflation) over the past 45 years, pay for men with only a high school education has fallen to $1,006 per week before Covid from $1,293 in 1979… Children born in 1940 had a 92 percent chance of earning more than their parents did at 30 (after adjusting for inflation). Those hatched in 1980 had just a 50 percent chance.”
“Even when economic growth has been decent, as it is now, most of the bounty has flowed to the top. Median weekly earnings have grown a miserly 0.1 percent a year since 1979. The typical American family today has a lower net worth than the typical family did 20 years ago… American capitalism isn’t working right now.”
“Nordic countries demonstrate that it's possible to basically eradicate the foundational aspects of capitalism — especially in Norway, where the state owns 75 percent of all non-home wealth and state-owned companies produce 60 percent of economic output — while maintaining a cutting-edge productive economy. None of the Nordics have abolished markets, it's true, which is why conservatives insist they are still capitalist. But their market institutions have been so carefully hemmed in by regulation and public ownership that they bear only a slight resemblance to the pure capitalist forms.”
Why did the Biden administration allow so many UNVETTED and potentially dangerous illegals into our country? - Nick
It’s important to note that hundreds of thousands of migrants attempt to cross the border every year no matter who is in the White House. Border crossings did rise significantly under Biden, but much of that was due to factors outside of his control; these include pent up demand following the pandemic, instability in Latin America, and even climate change. The administration did its best to handle the influx, expelling more than three million migrants at the border. It also deported around the same number as the Trump administration.
It’s not true that migrants are not vetted; before being released, they undergo background checks and migrants with criminal records are detained or expelled. Tens of thousands of non-citizens with criminal convictions have been arrested in each of the last four years. It’s true that some dangerous individuals slipped through the cracks due to the sheer number of migrants to process, but these are exceptions. There is no crime surge, and in fact immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than citizens.
The Biden administration attempted to work with Senate Republicans to pass a bipartisan bill that would increase border security, but it was blocked by Republicans in Congress. Despite this setback, Biden took several executive actions to secure the border, and encounters at the southwest border are currently the lowest they have been in four years.
Certain words themselves can have a partisan lean. “Illegal immigrants” and “undocumented workers” are the same thing but from different parties. How do you make the choice when publishing for The Flip Side? Do you alternate? - Miles
This is a great question! There’s a simple answer: we don’t choose. Instead, each side uses the term that it prefers. So our “right” column refers to illegal immigrants, while the “left” column discusses undocumented workers. The “right” column will generally not capitalize the word black when referring to someone’s ethnicity, but the “left” one will. And each side will frequently use different pronouns when referring to transgender individuals.
Do you think that conservatives are more vulnerable and susceptible to mis- and dis-information? If so, why do you think that? - Anonymous
We do not. While it’s true that conservatives are more likely to distrust the scientific consensus on climate change, it’s also the case that liberals are more likely to distrust the scientific consensus on GMOs (that they are safe). Concerns about bias plague studies purporting to show that conservatives are inclined to support authoritarianism.
Both sides have shown a willingness to believe conspiracies: a July poll showed that one-third of President Biden’s supporters believed the assassination attempt against then-candidate Trump may have been staged. Many conservatives believed election-related conspiracies after 2020, but now those on the left are doing the same.
In other words, people are vulnerable to misinformation, especially when it reinforces their pre-existing political beliefs or desires.
There have been many accusations of misinformation and lies in this election cycle, and there is also widespread distrust of fact checkers. What do you recommend for finding the truth about a political issue and sharing it with others? - Wayne, California
We recommend The Flip Side! If you’re curious about something that we haven’t covered, let us know and maybe we’ll feature it in the Weekly Spotlight. That said, we recommend looking to original sources whenever possible. Read (or watch, or listen to) what was actually said, not just what is being reported about it. Find the text of the law or policy proposal or the full interview. And, as President Reagan used to say: “Trust, but verify.” Go ahead and read the fact check, but then check the sources it cites to ensure that it is describing them accurately. Read the entire explanation, not just the top-line rating.
It’s also important to distinguish news reports from opinion and commentary. (For example, The Wall Street Journal’s op-ed section is biased to the right, but their news reporting is pretty even-handed.) We cite commentary on the “left” and “right” columns, but our top section (where we introduce the topic) uses news reports from ABC, BBC, CBS, Reuters, etc.
My husband and his family are all diehard Trump supporters. I am a left-leaning moderate and my teenage son has acquired a recent fascination with socialism. The Trump supporters have no qualms about speaking their minds about politics during family gatherings but if either my son or I try to counter anything they say we told it is rude to contradict someone. I am ok with holding my tongue for the sake of keeping the peace but my son wants to share his convictions. Do you have any advice for how he can do so without causing too much friction? - Anonymous
This is a tough question; family disagreements are a real issue, and can cause serious friction. We’d suggest that you keep everything respectful - disagree with ideas, not people - and focus on shared values. The resources we provide below may help!
We hope you enjoyed this week’s Q&A, and wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving!Here are some resources to improve contentious holiday conversations while enjoying turkey:
And for those of you looking to avoid politics, here are some suggestions:
