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A recent column in the Financial Times argued that “American politics is undergoing a racial realignment” citing polling indicating that “Democrats’ advantage among Black, Latino and Asian voters [is] at its lowest since 1960.” Financial Times
Both sides argue that economic and cultural factors may be driving minority voters away from the Democratic Party:
“[Liberal strategist Ruy] Teixeira pointed to recent experience as the most plausible explanation for why more Hispanics were eyeing the GOP in 2024. ‘Frankly, the Trump years prior to the pandemic were actually relatively better for working-class voters, including nonwhites, than the first three years of the Biden administration.’…
“He speculated that the Democrats’ cultural lurch to the left since the Obama era has also hurt the party’s standing with Latinos. Democrats are preoccupied with the concerns of white college-educated elites, which explains the Biden administration’s inaction on illegal immigration as well as its progressive posturing on race, gender, sex education, policing and climate change.”
Jason L. Riley, Wall Street Journal
“There is evidence that a substantial share of Black, Hispanic and other voters from multiracial, multiethnic backgrounds oppose some elements of the Democrats’ liberal social and cultural agenda. A Jan. 22 to 27 YouGov survey, for example, asked whether it was ‘morally acceptable or wrong to have a sexual relationship with someone of the same gender?’ Forty-four percent of Black voters answered ‘morally wrong,’ and 17 percent said ‘morally acceptable.’…
“The same question was posed on the issue of identifying ‘with a gender different from the gender assigned at birth.’ A plurality of Black voters said it was morally wrong, 39 to 13 percent, and Hispanics agreed, 30 to 15 percent.”
Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times
Other opinions below.
“Despite the protestations from the administration, the massive inflation caused by Bidenomics is simply an indisputable fact. Since Biden took office, overall inflation is up 18%. It costs $12,100 more per year for average American families to maintain the quality of life they enjoyed in January 2021, and core inflation remains hot at 3.8%…
“[Latinos] spend over half of their income on basic necessities – food, energy and housing. And this causes Hispanics to be disproportionately hurt by inflation, more than any other racial or ethnic group according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York…
“Meanwhile, incomes have not even come close to keeping pace with [the] spiking costs. Since the start of the Biden presidency, [real] median weekly incomes for Hispanics have barely moved, from $750 to $751.64.”
Jose Mallea, New York Post
“More importantly, though, the larger vision of America that the Republican Party is selling is just more appealing to minority voters as they become more prosperous. Explaining why Miami-Dade County turned Republican for the first time ever in 2022, former Rep. Carlos Curbelo told reporters that the Democratic Party has embraced a ‘victimhood discourse’ that focuses on ‘what Democrats consider to be the fundamental injustices and structural abuses in American society.’…
“Republicans, on the other hand, proudly believe the United States is the best country on Earth, and they aren’t embarrassed to say it. For many immigrants and their descendants who, in Curbelo’s words, ‘feel very blessed to be in the United States,’ the confidence and conviction of Republicans fit more closely with their understanding of the world.”
Editorial Board, Washington Examiner
“There are Black voters who believe that the business environment was better under Trump than it is under Biden. Kevin Wesley, the Black owner of Eclectic Barbershop, told me, ‘I think Mr. Trump did a lot for the business community and ensuring that the entrepreneurs maintain stability to keep our community employed.’ On the economy, Biden has done a better job than he’s being given credit for, but he’s done a bad job of selling it. This stands in contrast to Trump’s constant credit-taking, sometimes for things he didn’t even do.”
Charles M. Blow, New York Times
“Democrats have become increasingly dependent on the votes of college graduates, but college grads are the minority — about 40 percent of people aged 25 and older have a bachelor’s degree or higher, and the share is no longer really increasing as the number of Americans attending college is leveling off, particularly among men. Without winning huge majorities of Black voters, and solid majorities of Hispanics and Asian Americans, Democrats’ electoral math doesn’t add up to a majority.”
Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin
Some argue, “I’m somewhat skeptical that racial politics are changing that dramatically. First of all, the current racial-party coalitions reflect policy and material differences. The Democratic Party is generally trying to reduce inequalities of income, wealth and power. That makes it a logical home in particular for Black Americans, who because of past and current discrimination generally have less money and power than White Americans… And Biden is not Trump’s only competition for these voters… Polls suggest Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West could pull Black voters in particular from both Biden and Trump.”
Perry Bacon, Washington Post
