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“The Syrian army said on Saturday dozens of its soldiers had been killed in a major attack led by Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels who swept into the city of Aleppo, forcing the army to redeploy in the biggest challenge to President Bashar al-Assad in years… Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, once known as the Nusra Front, is designated a terrorist group by the U.S., Russia, Turkey and other states. Assad is a close Moscow ally.” Reuters
“Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah militants began a ceasefire [last] Wednesday in a major step toward ending nearly 14 months of fighting… The ceasefire calls for an initial two-month halt to fighting and requires Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops are to return to their side of the border. Thousands of additional Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers would deploy in the south, and an international panel headed by the United States would monitor compliance.” AP News
Both sides are dismayed by the developments in Syria:
“The moderate Arab countries had been urging Syria to move away from Iran in the wake of Hezbollah’s defeat by Israeli operations in Lebanon. They hoped that President Bashar al-Assad was tiring of Tehran’s tutelage and was ready to make a break if Washington would reduce its sanctions, which block the international assets of Assad and other officials and restrict investment and trading with the country. But now that Assad is facing a renewed opposition threat, it appears that he needs the Iranians more than ever…
“The resurgence of the Syrian opposition seems to have surprised everyone in the region, most of all Assad… The Assad regime had seemed to be recovering its balance over the past several years. But that stability was fragile, dependent on Russia, Iran and Hezbollah’s military muscle. Those props didn’t stop the rebels from seizing Aleppo, and Assad now faces a bloody assault to recapture the city. It’s sadly characteristic of the Middle East that as soon as one war ends, another starts.”
David Ignatius, Washington Post
“It’s tempting to wish for the fall of Bashar Assad given the massacres he has endorsed against his own people. But the Islamist groups that would oust him aren’t allies of democracy or the West. Turkey may be helping them for its own purposes, which includes killing anti-Turk Kurds who hold positions inside Syria…
“The Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, and Russia and Iran filled the vacuum after the Obama Administration chose not to support democratic forces. Anyone who thinks the end of Pax Americana leads to a better world, take a look at Syria. The U.S. is now a bystander, but the renewed fighting is another reason to keep backing Israel, a rare friend in a deadly region.”
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
Other opinions below.
“It is clear that Hezbollah, while substantially degraded as a military force, is far from defeated, much less destroyed… The Israeli government has not released any casualty estimates for Hezbollah, unlike for Hamas, an indication that the numbers are not impressive enough to advertise. Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies reports that Hezbollah has lost a total of 2,450 fighters out of an estimated 40,000 to 50,000…
“While Israel can certainly inflict heavy losses on its foes, it cannot simply vanquish them and, instead, will have to live with adversaries on its borders in the hope that it can deter them from further hostilities in the near future. It is to Netanyahu’s credit that he recognized the limitations of Israeli military power in Lebanon. The question now: Will he ever recognize the limitations of military power in the Gaza Strip?”
Max Boot, Washington Post
“As the ceasefire in Lebanon took effect on 27 November, US officials leaked that they were moving ahead with a new $680m weapons package to Israel, which includes thousands of joint direct attack munition (Jdam) kits and hundreds of small-diameter bombs. Jdams are guidance kits built by Boeing that attach to large ‘dumb bombs’, which can range up to 2,000lb (907kg), and convert them into GPS-guided weapons…
“These bombs cause enormous casualties when dropped on population centers, as Israel has repeatedly done in Gaza and Lebanon…
“From the start of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, Biden and his aides argued that their top priority was to prevent the war from spiraling into a regional conflict. But within months, the battle spilled into clashes in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and the Red Sea… It is one of Biden’s greatest foreign policy and moral failures that he refused to leverage $22.7bn in military support (and many more billions in future arms deals) into pressuring Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in Gaza.”
Mohammad Bazzi, The Guardian
“The rebel victory in Aleppo is a direct consequence of the wars in Ukraine and the Levant. Ukraine’s gallant resistance to Russian aggression has degraded Russia’s global capabilities and reduced Vladimir Putin’s power to aid his pals in Damascus. More vitally, Israel’s victories in Gaza and Lebanon have weakened its enemies in Damascus and beyond. Mr. Assad can’t count on Hezbollah and Iran to bail him out…
“On President Biden’s watch, the U.S. remained strategically passive as Russia expanded its global reach… Russia’s far-flung network of bases and relationships is vulnerable. A strategically alert and forward-thinking American war strategy would activate local allies against Russian interests worldwide, forcing Mr. Putin either to divert resources from Ukraine to defend his global network or to accept the loss of Russian influence.”
Walter Russell Mead, Wall Street Journal
Regarding the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, “What the deal envisions — both the IDF and Hezbollah pulling out of Lebanon south of the Litani River — was supposed to happen back in 2006 at the end of that Israel-Hez war; there was even a UN resolution (1701) saying so and declaring a ‘permanent ceasefire.’ Israel pulled out; Hezbollah never did. Indeed, it dug in deeper — literally so, with a network of terror tunnels far larger than Hamas’ excavations in Gaza…
“The United Nations left enforcement of 1701 to the Lebanese government, which then as now couldn’t sneeze without Hezbollah’s permission, and to UNIFIL — the UN peacekeeping force that’s done absolutely nothing to keep the peace in Lebanon for decades. And those same toothless marvels are now in charge of enforcing the Biden ‘achievement,’ though now the United States and maybe France promise to monitor compliance. Not that either Washington or Paris will send in troops to enforce compliance.”
Editorial Board, New York Post
