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“The path to the Federal Reserve for President Donald Trump’s controversial nominee Judy Shelton narrowed Tuesday after the Senate blocked a key procedural vote and a Republican senator who was one of her supporters said he came down with the coronavirus.” Reuters
Shelton was nominated to be one of the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, who serve on the Federal Open Markets Committee which determines interest rates and other aspects of monetary policy. Federal Reserve
The right is divided about Shelton.
Shelton’s critics “accuse her of flip-flopping to oppose low interest rates during Barack Obama’s term and then support low rates once Mr. Trump was in office. But the Fed flipped too… The Fed is abandoning in all but name the discredited Phillips Curve that posited low unemployment would trigger inflation. Instead policy makers will wait to see inflation rising for some time before raising rates…
“Ms. Shelton differs from Fed orthodoxy in preferring that the central bank eschew attempts to micromanage the economy and focus instead on stability as measured by exchange rates and asset and commodity prices. The Fed has gone in the opposite direction in adopting an ‘average inflation target’ that effectively gives it carte blanche to do whatever it wants for whatever reason. If you worry about politicized central banking, this is a far greater danger than any interest-rate policy Ms. Shelton has advocated…
“The fury unleashed against Ms. Shelton is far out of proportion to the power she’d have. She’d be one of seven board members and one of 12 on the Open Market Committee. Yet Washington’s political-media class treats her like an invading vandal… Ms. Shelton’s monetary views used to be considered a policy disagreement, but nowadays they’re heresy. All the more reason to confirm her as an independent voice.”
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
“It’s true that Shelton has said positive things about the gold standard. As a monetary economist, I know how risky it is to question the conventional wisdom. Monetary economists, especially ambitious ones, hate the gold standard, because the Fed has an outsized influence on monetary-economics research, and the last thing an economist looking to move up in the world wants to do is say nice things about a system that works just fine without a central bank. And let’s be clear: It does work just fine. Specifically, the ‘classical’ gold standard, which prevailed from 1879 to 1914, in many respects outperformed the system we have now…
“In an important paper comparing the pre- and post-Fed periods, George Selgin, William Lastrapes, and Lawrence White found that ‘the Fed’s full history… has been characterized by more rather than fewer symptoms of monetary and macroeconomic instability than the decades leading to the Fed’s establishment.’ In a subsequent study, Thomas Hogan found that GDP growth was better in the pre-Fed period, while inflation and inflation volatility (a key measure of purchasing power predictability) were worse…
“The Board is a deliberative body, and we should want a wide range of views represented to stave off insularity and groupthink. Shelton’s contrarian views would ensure that the Board confronted hard questions head on. Rather than impede effective monetary policy, Shelton would improve it by raising the level of debate and discussion.”
Alexander William Salter, National Review
Critics note that “For many years, Shelton tirelessly advocated a gold-backed dollar, 0 percent inflation, and higher interest rates. After the financial crisis, when the U.S. had a prolonged spell of low inflation and high unemployment, she argued that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to foster a recovery posed too great a risk of raising prices…
“President Trump has very different views. He wants low interest rates, does not worry about inflation, and shows no sign of caring about the gold standard. During his presidency, these views have been right in their practical upshot more often than not. What is worrisome is the extent to which Shelton has echoed Trump’s views without even acknowledging how they differ from the ones she has expressed in the past, let alone explaining her change of mind…
“The Fed, especially in recent years, has prized collegiality and consensus. If Shelton reverts to her earlier views once confirmed, she might exert a gravitational pull toward a tighter policy than the economy needs. The best argument against that concern is that her recent statements make her unpredictable rather than doctrinaire. That is not a recommendation for a part of the government that requires sober and steady judgment above all.”
The Editors, National Review
Returning to the gold standard “would risk price instability, which one would think would be of great concern to the self-styled populists of the new GOP — Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton. As others noted this afternoon, if they really are building a multiethnic, multiracial working-class party, as Rubio likes to say, they should be gravely worried about what inflation might do to cannibalize the wages of working-class Americans and what influence Shelton might have in blocking the sort of monetary stimulus the Fed has engaged in to help workers during the pandemic.”
Allahpundit, Hot Air
The left opposes Shelton.
The left opposes Shelton.
“Sixteen months ago, in the pre-coronavirus summer of 2019, President Donald Trump announced his candidates to fill two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors… One of the nominees is a conservative with extensive central-bank experience, broadly respected by monetary-policy experts. The other campaigned for the job from the lobby of the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C., and is widely regarded as a hyper-partisan extremist. Guess which nomination McConnell is now advancing…
“If Republicans retain their majority in the Senate, President-elect Biden will be denied control of fiscal policy. The Senate that voted for Trump’s trillion-dollar deficits will rediscover the importance of balanced budgets under Biden, if the GOP’s behavior during Obama’s presidency is any indication. Monetary policy might be the only tool to accelerate a recovery from the COVID-19 slump during the Biden administration. The Shelton nomination looks like McConnell’s bid to add a pro-recession bias to the Biden-era Fed.”
David Frum, The Atlantic
“When a Democrat was president, she fearmongered about impending ‘ruinous inflation’ and called for higher interest rates even though the economy was weak. (The Fed, quite responsibly, ignored her.) Then, once Trump was elected, she called for cutting interest rates ‘as expeditiously as possible,’ even while the economy was strong. Likewise, pre-Trump, she accused the Fed of nefariously weakening the dollar to boost exports; under Trump, she agreed with the president that the Fed should weaken the dollar to boost exports…
“Her nomination has been condemned by hundreds of economists and Fed alumni, including prominent Republicans and at least seven Nobel laureates. The senators poised to confirm her appear to know she is unfit; ahead of February hearings, a former Republican Senate Banking Committee aide said that ‘the idea of even calling her as a witness for something was beyond the pale’ not long ago. Republican lawmakers who now support Shelton’s appointment to one of the most important economic policymaking jobs in the world have struggled to explain why. In damningly faint praise, they admit that sure, she might believe ridiculous things, but she’d serve alongside competent people. So she can’t cause that much damage, right?”
Catherine Rampell, Washington Post
“The possible ineffectuality of Ms. Shelton’s tenure makes the Republican Senate’s apparent decision to press on with it that much more troubling. It is no longer necessary to appease a departing president; the main benefit to Republicans of filling this seat is to deny the opportunity to the incoming one. It also takes up legislative time and attention that could be better devoted to passing additional fiscal stimulus. Any GOP leader would want to maximize influence pending a Democratic president, but Ms. Shelton is a marginal pick and shelving her would have been a relatively low-cost gesture of bipartisan cooperation under Mr. Biden.”
Editorial Board, Washington Post
“Given the effects of the pandemic, there couldn’t be a worse time to put Shelton on the Fed, which has done yeoman’s work in propping up the economy while a polarized Congress watches idly from the sidelines. Her desire to rein in the Fed’s policies on interest rates and the supply of credit might have been an interesting counterpoint in better times. Now, however, they come across as tone-deaf.”
Editorial Board, Los Angeles Times
Some argue that “A Fed official who takes orders from a specific politician or group of ideologues would be craven and dangerous… But a Fed official who takes orders from the executive and legislative branches, regardless of which party controls them, would simply be someone who believes, as a matter of principle, that elected officials in a democracy should be the ones to set monetary policy…
“In the last four decades or so, [the Fed] has chronically over-emphasized low inflation, while essentially ignoring its legal obligation to maximize employment. Joblessness rates have been brutally high for long periods, while wages have stagnated and inequality has skyrocketed. Quite likely, this is because of how deeply the Fed as an institution is entangled with the private banking industry. In practice, a Fed that is ‘independent’ of the president and Congress is arguably a Fed that answers to wealthy elites and the financial industry…
“America is a democracy, where economic goals and policy are supposed to be set by the duly elected representatives of the people. It's perfectly reasonable to ask why an unelected institution as powerful as the Federal Reserve is permitted to not only ignore those decisions, but potentially even countermand them.”
Jeff Spross, The Week