September 25, 2024

Israel and Lebanon

Israel's military said it launched airstrikes against Hezbollah sites in Lebanon on Monday, which Lebanese authorities said had killed 492 people and sent tens of thousands fleeing for safety in the country's deadliest day in decades. After some of the heaviest cross-border exchanges of fire since hostilities flared in October, Israel warned people in Lebanon to evacuate areas where it said the armed movement was storing weapons…

“After almost a year of war against Hamas in Gaza on its southern border, Israel is shifting its focus to the northern frontier, where Iran-backed Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel in support of Hamas, also backed by Iran. Israel's military said it struck Hezbollah in Lebanon's south, east and north, including ‘launchers, command posts and terrorist infrastructure.’ The Israeli Air Force struck about 1,600 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, it said.” Reuters

Here’s our recent coverage of the exploding pagers in Lebanon. The Flip Side

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From the Left

The left is critical of Israel’s strikes, arguing that they are likely to lead to further escalation.

“Netanyahu’s ‘strategy’, as always, is self-defeating. Despite 1,300 Israeli strikes on Monday, Hezbollah is firing more rockets than before into Israel, and extending their range. Displaced Israeli residents cannot safely return – ostensibly his primary aim…

“Hezbollah has been clear all along. It says it will stop firing missiles when a Gaza ceasefire deal is agreed, not before. Netanyahu has reportedly blocked such a deal on numerous occasions.”

Simon Tisdall, The Guardian

“There’s only one path to peace… But Biden has repeatedly failed to follow through on the most likely path to preventing a regional war: pressing for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, particularly by using U.S. leverage to withhold billions of dollars in weapons shipments to Israel. All of Iran’s allies, especially Hezbollah, have indicated that they would stop their attacks on Israel once the fighting in Gaza ends.”

Mohamad Bazzi, Los Angeles Times

What I’m watching now in Lebanon is hauntingly similar to what I saw in 1982 as a young reporter in Beirut covering the Israeli invasion that year. The problem, then as now, was overreach. Israel wanted to go to the root, to crush its chief adversary at the time, the Palestine Liberation Organization…

“Israel had dazzling military and intelligence dominance back then, just as it does now. Its troops reached the suburbs of Beirut in days. But then what? Israel’s overwhelming power masked a strategic weakness: Its leaders didn’t have a good answer to the question, ‘Tell me how this ends.’… Victory is an illusion in this conflict.”

David Ignatius, Washington Post

Still, there are reasons to believe Hezbollah may choose to de-escalate the conflict, including the fact that any war would almost certainly be horrifically destructive to Lebanon, a country already struggling with a dysfunctional government and an economic crash…

“A diplomatic solution, perhaps one in which Hezbollah agrees to remove its positions close to Lebanon’s southern border, is certainly possible. That would allow Israelis to move back to their homes in the north. Whatever the outcome, however, Israel will likely not be able to eliminate Hezbollah, just as it has failed at eliminating Hamas. And continued aggression could lead to more extreme outcomes in the future.”

Ellen Ioanes, Vox

From the Right

The right supports Israel’s strikes, arguing that the country has a right to defend itself.

The right supports Israel’s strikes, arguing that the country has a right to defend itself.

“Since the Hamas atrocities on Oct. 7, Lebanon-based Hezbollah has fired roughly 8,000 rockets at Israel. These indiscriminate attacks have forced tens of thousands of Israelis to flee the north of the country. In July, a Hezbollah missile killed 12 young adults and children who were playing soccer in the Golan Heights, a random massacre with no military purpose whatsoever…

“The theme, as ever, is that the Jewish state is expected to accept as background noise unprovoked attacks on its sovereign territory that no other state would ever abide. What other country is asked to bear the rocketing of its civilian population as the price for faux regional comity? Israel won’t abide by these rules, and nor should it.”

Rich Lowry, New York Post

“Israel says it destroyed tens of thousands of missiles and launchers, most hidden in civilian homes… One lesson of Oct. 7 is that Israel can’t let terrorists build up armies, even if they seem deterred. Northern Israel could never be safe if Hezbollah retains its arsenal. The Israeli strikes will degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities, perhaps for many years…

“This is progress against Iran’s ‘ring of fire’ around Israel. Hezbollah came to Hamas’s aid, but Hamas is now too weakened to return the favor. The wrecking of one proxy weakens the network. The wrecking of another would peel back the Iranian nuclear program’s layers of defense. These are the strategic stakes as Israel fights to return its citizens to their homes and remove the sword of Tehran overhead.”

Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal

Some argue, “Except in its Shiite strongholds, polling by the Arab Barometer shows, Hezbollah is unpopular among most Lebanese. With good reason: The group has hijacked their country, murdered their most beloved leaders, turned much of the country into a target and devoted its resources to building a vast military infrastructure even as the national economy has collapsed…

“Israel can’t hope to turn Lebanon into any kind of ally — that fantasy died with the Syrian-backed assassination of Bashir Gemayel, Lebanon’s Israel-aligned president-elect, in 1982. But it should not repeat the 2006 mistake of trying to create deterrence through demonstrations of brute force. The kind of targeted strikes demonstrated by last week’s pager attacks are vastly more effective in erasing Hezbollah’s aura of invincibility.”

Bret Stephens, New York Times