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“Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel early on Sunday, as Israel's military said it struck Lebanon with around 100 jets to thwart a larger attack, in one of the biggest clashes in more than 10 months of border warfare… “With three deaths confirmed in Lebanon and one in Israel, both sides indicated they were happy to avoid further escalation for now, but warned that there could be more strikes to come. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the Iranian-backed group's barrage, a reprisal for the assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr last month, had been completed ‘as planned’. However, the group would assess the impact of its strikes and ‘if the result is not enough, then we retain the right to respond another time’, he said.” Reuters
Here’s our coverage of the killings of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr. The Flip Side
Both sides agree that Hezbollah appears reluctant to cause further escalation:
“For weeks, both [Hezbollah] and its Iranian patron have been threatening a terrible revenge for the recent assassinations in Beirut and Tehran. It is now clear, however, that neither Hezbollah or Iran wishes to risk a descent to all [out] war at the present time. Iran appears to have relegated its response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran to some point in the future. Hezbollah, meanwhile, sought to target two sites of high significance… [but] failed to strike either target…
“From this perspective, Israel may record a notable achievement. The current round indicates that Jerusalem can hit prestige targets, senior officials of the enemy side, in the very heart of enemy territory, while paying only a limited and symbolic price by way of retribution… [Tehran’s desire] to preserve its assets and return the focus to the campaigns of attrition it prefers will have been well noted by both friend and foe. It is likely to have implications in the next stages of the conflict.”
Jonathan Spyer, Spectator World
“In the brutal choreography that governs Israel’s relations with Hezbollah, Sunday’s attack will have been factored in by Jerusalem following Israel’s assassination of one of the organisation’s top commanders last month. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, emphasised that a decision had been taken not to risk Israeli civilian casualties in the assault, which targeted military locations and the Mossad spy base near Tel Aviv…
“For his part, Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, stated that Israel did not desire an all-out conflict, having acted pre-emptively to destroy around 40 rocket sites. The absence of civilian deaths on either side points to a desire to calibrate levels of escalation while keeping options open. Iran, which has yet to retaliate after the assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, is also using the language of restraint while guaranteeing that a response will come. The caution underlines the vertiginously high stakes and reflects calculated self-interest.”
Editorial Board, The Guardian
Other opinions below.
“What transpired was a model of calculated escalation… Meanwhile, U.S. mediators in Cairo continued to inch forward in negotiations with Hamas representatives for a Gaza truce and the release of Israeli hostages. Mediators are down to negotiating names of what could be more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners that would be released as the hostages are freed. The deal isn’t done, but the bargaining is down to the fine details…
“Israel has agreed to withdraw east from ‘densely populated’ areas of Gaza. But Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is insisting that the border between Gaza and Egypt is sparsely populated, and that Israeli troops can remain. Hamas and the Egyptian mediators both disagree. Netanyahu has accepted a compromise wherein the Israeli force along the border will be a fraction of what he initially demanded… The momentum toward peace continues.”
David Ignatius, Washington Post
Some, however, note that “When the Israel Democracy Institute asked if people wanted their country to expand the war to take on Hezbollah in Lebanon, the answer was mostly yes… The argument goes that while Hamas itself may not pose an existential threat, the larger power that it works with in Tehran does — and there will never be a better time to eliminate that threat than now…
“There are really just two ways for the war in Gaza to resolve; either through a mediated and internationalized accommodation between Israelis and Palestinians that aims to sideline Hamas and normalize Israel’s place in the Middle East over time, or through a once-and-for-all showdown between Israel, backed by the US on one side, and Iran and its many proxies on the other. Neither the new political leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, nor Netanyahu is interested in the former.”
Marc Champion, Bloomberg
“Hezbollah has an arsenal of up to 150,000 Iranian-supplied missiles (many precision-guided) and about 50,000 fighters… Israel’s Iron Dome is a tremendous defensive shield, but it cannot block everything. If Hezbollah were to succeed in launching thousands of missiles, some — perhaps many — would get through. That could do tremendous damage to Israel…
“Because of Israel’s preemptive action this weekend, Hezbollah was able to fire only about 230 rockets and launch about 20 drones, most of which were intercepted and none of which caused material harm. Hezbollah claims it fired 320 rockets — an exaggeration, but one that refrains from acknowledging the ambitious scale of its planned attack, which the IDF thwarted.”
Andrew C. McCarthy, National Review
“As it always does, Hezbollah called its salvo a great success. One Israeli woman was lightly wounded by rocket shrapnel, and one Israeli sailor was killed by shrapnel from an interceptor. Hezbollah’s best direct hit seems to have been on an Israeli chicken coop. The blue-chip Tel Aviv 35 stock index rose 2% for the day…
“The knee-jerk response from the global left is to condemn Israel for ‘escalation.’ But in greatly reducing the damage from Hezbollah’s attack, the Israeli strike limited the escalation…
“Hezbollah’s attack comes on a key weekend for Gaza negotiations, which continue as Hamas fails to get its way. Hezbollah tried to lend Hamas a hand, Mr. Nasrallah said. Will President Biden, fearing escalation, now add to the pressure on Israel to make dangerous cease-fire concessions? Better to let Hamas and Hezbollah contemplate their military failures. They should be making the concessions.”
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
