August 1, 2024

Ismail Haniyeh Assassinated

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran early on Wednesday morning… Although the strike on Haniyeh was widely assumed to have been carried out by Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government made no claim of responsibility and said it would make no comment on the killing… Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel had provided the grounds for ‘harsh punishment for itself’ and it was Tehran's duty to avenge Haniyeh's death…

“The assassination occurred less than 24 hours after Israel said it had killed Hezbollah's most senior military commander in retaliation for a deadly rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah confirmed that senior military commander Fuad Shukr was killed by an Israeli airstrike in a Beirut suburb.” Reuters

See past issues

From the Left

The left worries that the strikes will lead to escalating violence in the region.

“Israel has killed dozens of Hamas and Hezbollah officials and militants over the years… Even so, there are reasons to fear this pair of assassinations could soon light the fuse to a potentially catastrophic regional war that would be in the interests of neither Israel, Lebanon nor Iran. The first of these is the locations of the strikes, in Beirut and Tehran, a decision inevitably seen in both capitals as a serious Israeli escalation…

“The second reason to fear a wider war is the choice of Haniyeh as a target… Haniyeh was the political face of Hamas, living in exile in Qatar, and the man responsible for handling negotiations over a cease-fire in Gaza. While Hamas is an opaque organization, he was widely viewed as the more pragmatic of its leaders.”

Marc Champion, Bloomberg

“Hamas is both the instigator of the war in Gaza—the result of its Oct. 7 assault on Israel—and the main obstacle to a cease-fire. But Netanyahu is not eager for an armistice either, certainly not before his army destroys Hamas as a political and military entity—a goal that many of his own generals see as infeasible. In his hourlong address to Congress last week, he repeated his cry for ‘total victory’ without so much as mentioning the talks—making [it] very clear that he has no interest in even feigning a desire for a diplomatic breakthrough.”

Fred Kaplan, Slate

“At other crisis points over the last 10 months – such as in April, when Iran launched its first ever direct military attack on Israel after the assassination of one of its commanders in Damascus – an all-out regional war has been avoided. The players have calculated their responses. That should not offer false reassurance; rather, each incident increases the risks. Each move may be calibrated, yet they are set at a higher notch than before.”

Editorial Board, The Guardian

Some argue, “[These attacks] should, if anything, be a relief. Israel has drawn blood in pinpoint strikes as an alternative to the wholesale attempted dismemberment of Hezbollah through ground invasion or all-out war. Coordinated assassinations send the message that Hezbollah’s leaders, and the leaders of other groups that depend on Iran’s funding and protection, remain alive only because Israel has not yet decided to kill them…

“That message would certainly make an impression on me, if I were dependent on Iran’s protection. I would be less inclined to escalate, and more inclined to declare this round of violence concluded. Iran is naturally mortified that it could not protect its vassal even in Tehran, and it will seek revenge. But it has tried to avoid all-out war for years. To start one now would be an extreme gamble, at a time when Israel has just given Iran reason to doubt that fortune favors it.”

Graeme Wood, The Atlantic

From the Right

The right urges the US to back Israel’s efforts.

The right urges the US to back Israel’s efforts.

“The press is fretting that the strikes will further delay negotiations over a Gaza cease-fire, and perhaps they will. But the evidence has shown that Hamas gives ground when it is most under military pressure. Israel recently killed Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif. The Hamas politicians remaining in Qatar now know their lives are also on the line if they continue to resist Israel’s reasonable terms…

“The U.S. can help Israel prevent a larger war by putting pressure on Hezbollah and Iran. Expediting weapons to Israel, including deep-penetrating bombs that would put Iran’s nuclear facilities at risk, would send a message, as would enforcing oil sanctions again…

“Sending U.S. warships to the eastern Mediterranean, as after Oct. 7, would also make Iran think twice about Hezbollah’s next move.”

Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal

“[Israel’s] recent series of targeted assassinations should send a stark warning to terrorist leaders worldwide: they are not safe. The moment they leave the safety of their underground bunkers—or their fancy accommodations in Qatar, in the case of Hamas leaders—they may find themselves in Israel’s crosshairs. To drive this message home even more powerfully, however, the international community, particularly the United States, should unequivocally express support for the strikes…

“U.S. leaders should recognize that supporting a proactive Israel also safeguards American interests. Both Shakr and Haniyeh have American blood on their hands. Shakr, for his part, played a key role in the planning and execution of the 1983 attack on the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 American service personnel. And Haniyeh oversaw the October 7 massacre, in which dozens of [Americans] were murdered.”

Eitan Fischberger, City Journal

Some argue, “While there will be few tears for Haniyeh’s demise… the fact that Washington was reportedly unaware about the Israeli assassination in Tehran before it occurred speaks volumes. The Israelis kept the operation close-hold not because they were concerned the Americans would leak sensitive details to the press but rather because Israeli officials likely understood that the hit against Haniyeh would have extremely serious consequences…

“Those consequences not only include potentially extinguishing whatever negotiating embers between Israel and Hamas are still left… but also turning other hotspots in the Middle East even hotter. The approximately 3,500 US troops still stationed in Iraq and Syria — ISIS’s territorial caliphate has been dead and buried for more than five years, which begs the question of why those troops are still being ordered to stick around — will now have to look over their shoulders.”

Daniel DePetris, Spectator World