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“Sweden’s membership of NATO took a big step forward on Monday after Turkey agreed to remove one of the last major roadblocks in return for help in reviving Turkey’s own chances of joining the European Union… Earlier Monday, Erdogan had warned that he would block Sweden’s attempt to become the 32nd NATO ally unless European members of the military organization ‘pave the way’ for Turkey to join the world’s biggest trading bloc.” AP News
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed fresh pledges of weapons and ammunition to fight Russia’s invasion along with longer-term security commitments from the West on Wednesday even as he expressed disappointment over the lack of a clear path for his country to join NATO as the alliance wrapped up its annual summit… On Tuesday, the leaders said in their communique summarizing the summit’s conclusions that Ukraine can join ‘when allies agree and conditions are met.’” AP News
Both sides support Sweden joining NATO:
“Sweden is a democracy that possesses capable combat forces. And while Stockholm must move faster to reach NATO's 2%-of-GDP minimum defense spending target, it is on a better trajectory to do so than many other existing member states… The alliance's looming 32nd member will strengthen both NATO's deterrent and combat capability…
“That said, the price Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan has extracted for approving Sweden's NATO membership is a ridiculous one. Namely, Swedish support for Turkey's enduring effort to join the European Union… The treatment of Turkish opposition figures, independent journalists, activists, academics, and ethnic minorities makes clear that Erdogan's regime has no regard for basic democratic norms. The idea that Turkey presently deserves to be admitted into the EU is thus a laughable one.”
Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner
“Only four years ago, on the eve of another summit, the organization looked to be in low water; in the words of President Emmanuel Macron of France, it was undergoing nothing short of ‘brain death.’ Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the situation has been transformed…
“As NATO plans to welcome Sweden into its ranks — Finland became a full-fledged member in April — and dispatch troops to reinforce its eastern flank, European Union allies are finally making good on long-deferred promises to increase military spending. Public opinion has followed suit. If Russia sought to divide Europe, President Biden could plausibly declare last spring that it had instead fully ‘NATO-ized’ the continent… The most successful alliance in history, gathering in celebration of itself, need not wait for its 75th anniversary next year to uncork the champagne.”
Grey Anderson and Thomas Meaney, New York TimesOther opinions below.
“The question isn’t whether Ukraine will join tomorrow. Winning the war is the priority, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is right that ‘unless Ukraine prevails, there is no membership to be discussed at all.’ NATO members aren’t interested in complicating the alliance’s Article V commitment during a hot conflict…
“But giving Ukraine and Russia a clear signal that Ukraine will be able to join after the war is a way to win the peace. Kyiv is likely to have one of the most experienced and lethal militaries in Europe, and NATO membership would anchor that capability and will to fight firmly in the West. The prospect of membership would also help Volodymyr Zelensky sell a peace deal to his own public, even if it includes letting Russia keep Crimea or other territory. Ukraine’s credible worry is that Russia bides its time after a truce and launches another assault. That is much less likely if Ukraine is in the alliance.”
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
Others argue, “Even offering a pathway to NATO for Ukraine would, given the war that has been fought on its territory since 2014, be meaningless, and quite possibly counterproductive, raising the possibility of splits within NATO and playing to Russia’s paranoia about the alliance, a paranoia that is shared by a considerable portion of the Russian population. Nothing is to be gained by taking a step that would rally support for the war within Russia, would offer NATO no particular military advantage, and might make a dangerous situation more perilous still.”
The Editors, National Review
“A better political solution for supporting Zelensky would be to add Ukraine to the EU. That would also be provocative for Putin, but not militarily provocative, while expressing Ukraine’s European identity. Ukraine applied for EU membership shortly after the war started, and that has also stalled while waiting for the conflict to end. EU membership more directly addresses the issue of identity while refraining from putting NATO in a position where we either have to fight a war or fatally weaken Article V’s declaration of common defense.”
Ed Morrissey, Hot Air
“Turkey’s change of heart [followed] a telephone call between Biden and Erdogan on Sunday, in which the American president appears to have made his position crystal clear… US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the deal came about after talks between NATO, Turkey and Sweden but also pointed to recent US engagement, including the president’s meeting in Washington last week with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson…
“Once Sweden finally joins NATO, it will bolster Biden’s reputation as a US leader who reinvigorated and expanded the bloc. Finland – which decided to sign up, like Sweden, after the invasion of Ukraine – has already added hundreds of miles of NATO territory on Russia’s border…
“Biden’s lifeline of arms and ammunition for Ukraine and leadership of the alliance has made him the most significant president in transatlantic affairs at least since George H.W. Bush, who presided over the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany. His legacy will ultimately depend, however, on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and his capacity to avoid a direct clash with Russia.”
Stephen Collinson, CNN
“One important measure [announced at the summit] was the establishment of an 11-member coalition of European countries to train Ukrainian pilots to fly U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, a process that will take at least six months… It was also important that France, following Britain’s lead, said it would provide Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles, capable of precision strikes at a range of up to 155 miles, meaning they could hit targets far behind Russian lines in Ukraine…
“Mr. Putin is convinced that a frozen war is in his favor — that ‘Ukraine fatigue’ will subvert Western resolve; that time is on his side; and, in his best-case scenario, that Donald Trump will win a second term and end U.S. aid to Kyiv. The West’s way to upend his calculus is to prove its own will is unbending. NATO said the right things in Vilnius about helping protect Ukraine for years to come. Now the alliance’s job is to show that its pledge amounts to more than words.”
Editorial Board, Washington Post
“For over 100 years, U.S. aims in Europe have been counterhegemonic: in World War I, World War II, and again in the Cold War, the United States bore high costs to prevent one country from dominating the continent. Today, however, even a Russia that somehow defeated Kyiv would not be poised to control Europe… Ukraine’s resistance to Russian bellicosity is noble, but noble actions and even effective self‐defense do not themselves justify taking on the high risks of an open‐ended security commitment…
“For much of the post–Cold War period, the United States could expand its international commitments at relatively low cost and risk. Those circumstances no longer exist. With fiscal pressures at home, a grave challenge to its position in Asia, and the prospect of escalation and an erosion of credibility vis‐à‐vis Moscow, keeping Ukraine out of NATO simply reflects U.S. interests.”
Justin Logan and Joshua Shifrinson, Cato Institute
