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“Americans for Prosperity, the political arm of the powerful Koch network, formally endorsed Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign on Tuesday, promising to commit its nationwide coalition of activists — and virtually unlimited funds — to helping Haley defeat former President Donald Trump in the GOP primary contest.” AP News
Both sides see this as a boost for Haley but remain skeptical about her chances of winning the nomination:
“Haley has succeeded in outlasting other contenders — [she] benefits from Scott’s departure, leaving her as the sole South Carolina candidate — but the big question is whether she can actually make the leap from consolidating the moderate and traditional Reaganite vote to something that could defeat Trump…
“AFP Action says that it has contacted some 6 million voters so far — a big number, given that Trump won the 2016 primary with a little over 14 million votes. The group argues that it is possible to change the trajectory of the primary by persuading regular Republican general-election voters who don’t typically vote in primaries to turn out against Trump. That, too, is untested — it sounds a lot like Ted Cruz’s theory in 2016 – but AFP Action has the resources to make it worth the attempt.”
Dan McLaughlin, National Review
“The endorsement matters both materially and symbolically. AFP Action has deep pockets, and it has already spent a significant amount of money on the race. It has spent $4 million on ads so far in the election cycle and raised more than $70 million in the first half of the year, according to NBC News. And as The New York Times reports, the endorsement will strengthen her organizational capacity significantly by giving her access to a direct mail program, field workers and phone bank operations…
“More broadly, AFP Action’s decision is a signal that in the ‘invisible primary’ — during which powerful donors, activists and party elites try to pick candidates before the actual primaries begin — Haley is moving ahead of DeSantis. As exciting as all this news is for Haley, it shouldn’t breed delusions about her winning the Republican nomination. Given the extraordinary size of Trump’s lead in the polls, she isn’t competing for front-runner status, but rather for the status of front-runner against Trump.”
Zeeshan Aleem, MSNBC
Other opinions below.
“[Haley] is not polling anywhere close to the highs DeSantis hit during his stint as the Trump slayer, and if you use the Register-led poll to game out a future winnowing, you see that her own voters would mostly go to DeSantis if she were to drop out — but if DeSantis were to drop out, a lot of his voters would go to Trump…
“As long as that’s the case, Haley might be able to consolidate 30 or 35 percent of the party, but the path to actually winning would be closed. Which could make her ascent at DeSantis’s expense another study in the political futility of anti-Trump conservatism, its inability to wrestle successfully with the populism that might make Trump the nominee and the president again.”
Ross Douthat, New York Times
Others note, “[There is] a cavernous gulf between the expansive position for America on the world stage Haley favors and the reduced role the broader Koch network prefers… Koch even joined forces with progressive megadonor George Soros in 2019 to establish the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, an organization with a mission diametrically opposed to Haley’s vision for the United States…
“What does it say that the Koch network is supporting someone so out-of-step with its own outlook on such momentous issues? Haley’s free-market bona fides surely played a role, but the other major contender in the primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is no slouch in this area and hews much closer to the Koch view of foreign policy…“The answer, then, is AFP Action and its backers — who are putting millions on the line— have determined Haley is much better suited than DeSantis to take on Trump.”
Isaac Schorr, New York Post
“The Koch network is one of the most influential conservative political groups, and yet its efforts to stop Trump have been foiled at every turn. In the months since the Koch network proclaimed that Trump ‘can’t win,’ the former president has established himself as the Republican primary front-runner—by a massive margin. National polls show him with an average of 61.6 percent support. Haley has climbed steadily in recent months, but she’s still sitting in third place…
“It’s also unclear exactly why the Koch network dislikes Trump so much. While in office, he successfully carried out moves long sought by the organization, including the gutting of the Environmental Protection Agency, a single-minded strategy of deregulation to strengthen the hand of private businesses, and tipping the Supreme Court conservative.”
Tori Otten, New Republic
“Haley exists in an unprecedented state, a Schrödinger’s semi-front-runner. Her best asset as a candidate, basically, is that in her bearing, ideological positions, and possession of ineffable trail-mentum, she comes off as someone who might plausibly become president. But she also needs to continue knife fighting with second-tier candidates…
“Haley is launching a $10 million ad campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire whose purpose is to further erode support for DeSantis. [And] fundraiser Spencer Zwick, who has worked with Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, is joining Haley’s team to help continue harvesting cash from the kind of Wall Street Republicans who initially backed DeSantis…“A buzzy, big-money campaign barrage targeting a guy whose support is at 15 percent and falling? Only in America, only in 2024.”
Ben Mathis-Lilley, Slate
A libertarian's take
“In the days before the Koch network announced its gift of cash and organizational muscle to the Haley team, the press was stirring the pot to make it seem like she was making the 2024 contest a real race… Just this week, the press — Associated Press, POLITICO, cable news — marveled at the fact that Haley drew 2,700 to a Monday campaign rally, even though it was held in her home state of South Carolina, where it was inconceivable that she wouldn’t attract a crowd…
“What has the press hyperventilating about Haley is not her relative rise in the national polls over the past month (about two percentage points), or the fact that she’s drawing even with DeSantis in Iowa. Nor is it the remote possibility that she’ll eclipse former President Trump. No, what’s causing the swoon is her uphill climb to defeat DeSantis for the meaningless position as the second-place finisher in the race…
“News outlets run as fail-safe systems, designed to function even in the case of such reportorial emergencies as when a candidate leads by a margin that not even a deep trough of $70 million in Koch money can alter.”
Jack Shafer, Politico
